The rupee is tantalizingly close
to the 70 mark against the dollar. But why are so many Indians talking about
it? Why this ruckus? Does it mean anything to us? Do we need to panic? Our
lives won’t change much, will they? We still can go about watching reality
shows and spending on expensive gadgets. What do we care if the SENSEX has
tanked almost 2000 points in 2 months? Who invests in the stock exchange
anyway? Right?
Actually, the weakening rupee
will impact all our lives a lot. Let me tell you how.
Most Indian companies borrow from
foreign banks because it means a huge savings in interest rates for them. While
Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR) for commercial borrowing offered by Indian
banks ranges between 9-11%, interest rates offered by foreign banks may be as
low as 3-4%. Telecom companies like Bharti Airtel took loans as large as $52
million through External Commercial Borrowings (ECB). Almost all companies are
debt laden; some more than the others. Now that the rupee has weakened, their
savings due to lower interest rates have been wiped out. This not only
translates to lesser pay hikes for employees but also leads to downsizing. Many
blue chip companies in India are already laying people off. Imagine the stress
on midsized and smaller firms. So, for one, the weakening rupee jeopardizes
increments and jobs.
Now, 70% of India’s imports comprise
of crude oil. This crude oil provides our country with petrol, diesel, cooking
gas and more. With the rupee weakening, the government will have to shell out
more for these crude oil barrels. And they’re not kind enough to bear the brunt
themselves. It will be passed on to common man. As a result, we will have to
shell out more for these commodities along with vegetables and daily goods. Hence
the talk of increasing diesel’s price by Rs. 5 at once. Also, other imports
like cars, electronic gadgets (mobile phones, cameras, TVs, etc.) will get
expensive. So while our salaries won’t increase, the cost of everything else
will. We won’t be able to protect ourselves from the ever increasing inflation.
Rupee v/s Dollar since 2011 |
Foreign funds and entities will
not invest in India. They would rather prefer staying invested in a safe haven
like the dollar instead of investing in India and running the risk of losing
money.
The economy has spiralled out of
control. It is now out of the Congress’ hands. They’ve made ½ the population so
dependent upon them that getting out of this gloom doesn’t seem possible for
the next year. The Food Security Bill will bleed the country’s coffers of
70,000 crore bucks. As always, it will be ridded with corruption and very few
of the deserving poor will get food. Plus, schemes like MGNREGA have made
labourers in villages leave farming and sit at home. By registering for this
scheme, people are assured of Rs. 100 per day for 100 days. Farmers now find it
very hard to get daily wage workers to toil on their farms. Even if they do,
the labour is expensive. This means the cost of crops (and invariably, food)
increases. Plus, labourers get used to earning without working. This leads to a
slowdown in farming, infrastructure projects, fishing, manufacturing and other
sectors.
While we can’t guarantee that
another party will perform better than the Congress, we should give them a
chance. If Modi can drive growth in our country, reduce the leeches in our
economy, clear some cobwebs among pending projects, shouldn’t we give the BJP a
chance? Even if they don’t do a phenomenal job and the Congress returns to
power 5 years later, the latter will at least know that they can’t take their
seats for granted. The Congress is complacent now. We need to do something to
give them a jolt.
image Courtesy: Google images